The Profits Network – Quad Sequencing

An Overview

Quad Sequencing is about establishing a morale boosting run of winning sequences or ‘coups’.

However, first we need to look at some theoretical background to what we have and discuss obvious but little appreciated facts in horse racing today.

For horse racing in the UK and Ireland, among the most important form and statistics-based factors, we might include the going, the trainer, the jockey, the horse, the course, the distance, the handicap etc.

But one highly significant factor is often overlooked; namely that favourites win 34% of races day in and day out.

Therefore, we must ask ourselves, why shouldn’t that certainty be the foundation stone of highly successful betting strategies?

 For example, in a field of 10 horses the favourite has about a 34% chance of winning, the second favourite has a 17% chance of winning. (so you could say 8 horses in this 10-runner race, have on average a 5%-win chance each).

It does not actually matter how the favourite is arrived at. It could be the weight of cumulative money on it, or a ‘celebrity gambler’ manages to get a six figure bet on perhaps, or it’s a cynical fix by the bookies, or ‘connections’ have carefully planned a well-executed ‘gamble’, it could be a blindfold and pin, or even a rational assessment of all the runners by the experts. The fact is that favourites will win 34% of races on average.

On days when they do not win 34% of the races (say they only win 25%) you may be sure a day will have to follow shortly after where favourites win 43% of races to maintain the average.

Poring over the form book, breeding, time statistics, track and trainer statistics, they all have their place, but mainly all the knowledge you need about a race is in the odds themselves and that means somebody else (salaried odds compilers) have done the hard work for you.

The result of all that hard work and interpretation of myriad variables is the nomination of a favourite. The favourite immediately becomes the most important horse in the race with a far better chance of winning it than any other horse, overall.

By appreciating the importance of favourites and accepting that they will WIN 34% of all races, then ‘probability’ can replace ‘chance’ in our betting.

You have heard darts, tennis players and golfers talk about ‘playing the percentages’. Well, what they mean is, they understand and accept the iron laws of probability. They realise ‘certain shots or plays’ have an enhanced likelihood of success.

That is what you also need to do in considering the development of betting strategies that play the favourite, or any group of wagers come to that.

With this knowledge, we can proceed to put effective betting game plans into operation.

You might think that if favourites win 1 in 3 races, then picking any 3 races of the day at random will produce at least one win in the trio.

This will work around 76% of the time.

Some days you can certainly make a nice profit if you are feeling lucky, just by using a random trio.

Up your selection to 4 random races in the day and the performance is better (84%), this is good. However, debit days can threaten profits.

It is possible to get your favourite-based strategies winning over 95% of the time and this document is all about what they are, how they work and what we must do to make them profitable.

Think about it, in a sequence of four bets, raw chance tells you that you only need a 25% strike rate with an appropriate staking mechanic to come out ahead. Well, favourites win 34% of the time and that is more than the required 25%.

You can say that Quad Sequencing works about every day in effect. On at least 90 days out of 100 you will have a winning play, and you can build a ‘do nothing’ strategy that automatically raises your bank according to your staking.

With Quad Sequencing you can play days at random, every day, play days in ‘pairs’ or once a week, even play ‘concurrent quads’ alongside each other and play with confidence, plus have ‘iron’ probability on your side.

This graph shows an 80-day sequence, chosen at random, from early 2025 (we have access to these statistics going back to 1996 and they do not vary significantly, the graph snapshot is quite typical).

The blue line shows the daily percentage of winning favourites.

The red line shows the running average of the daily figures, or the ‘trend’.

If you look at the graph you will see that to begin with, the running average (red line) follows the daily percentage up and down.

But by day 37 the running average has settled at 34% of favourites winning. It runs through at that level as a flat line to the 80^th day.

The daily percentage of winning favourites (blue line) hovers around the running average.

The daily percentage runs in a band between 15% and 48% with occasional peaks and troughs above and below those limits.

As a general principle, if the daily total is up over 34% one day it must be lower shortly after, to maintain the average.

Conversely, if the daily average is lower than 34% one day, it must go higher in the immediately following days.

This principle is seen at work after every trough or peak but at its starkest on the only day of the 80 where NO favourites won their races.

Fortunately, in these circumstances, probability goes to work and on the next days the daily average of winning favourites was 40% and 56%, which gives an average for the 3 days of 32%.

Fig: 2 shows the performance of favourites in races with between 3 and 9 runners. It is from the past 3 years and comprises races of all types and codes. The figures are based on declared fields and do not include non-runners that reduce a field of 11 to 9 runners for instance.

On average 43% of favourites win races with between 3 and 9 declared runners. Because of the extra certainty of winning (raw chance) the odds will be lower overall; and favourites will be returned from odds on to around 4.5 (7/2).

These odds will be profitable if the correct betting mechanics are employed.

Races with 9 or less runners usually form between a quarter and a third of the day’s races. In the summer Flat season, particularly when evening meetings are considered, this proportion might rise towards a half.

On Saturday afternoons there will be a lot of races to consider and around the winter months you can expect 5 – 7 small fields each day.

Summary

• Favourites win 34% of all races
• Favourites win 43% of ‘small field’ races between 3 and 9 runners
• Quad Sequencing needs 4 races to work

Sequencing

 Random Trio Sequencing

If you pick out a random trio of these races you will have an 87% chance of gaining a winner within one of the three races.

You could take the three races from the day and have a 76-80% chance of gaining a winning play within that group. Say the 1, 4, 6 or the 2, 3, 5 races.

You may wish to apply ‘filters’ to these races, such as non-handicap races only, or exclusively use races where the winning favourite percentage is over 40%. Or races that have only 5-7 runners. Or use qualifying races where the favourite won last time out or is also a ‘course and distance’ winner.

Static Trio Sequencing

You could choose other static trios of races on the day like 1, 3, 5 or 2, 3, 5. Both can produce an 80-85% winning record. The advantage of using a static trio such as 2, 3, and 5 is that you can use several trios concurrently on the same day.

This is not a bad gamble, as some experimentation will show. Sure, you are going to hit a losing day or two, but these will be offset by some extremely pleasurable and profitable winning sequences.

Quad Sequencing

However, when you choose a group of four races your probability of a winning sequence goes over 90% and though the Trio concept certainly has merit – this extra probability of a winning sequence is why The Profits Network advocate Quad Sequencing.

Conclusion

 The message of Quad Sequencing is very clear, it is a successful and profitable way to harness the power of probability when backing favourites to win. Or any other qualifying group of selections come to that. Following the rare days when it fails, it will succeed on the next day 96% of the time.

So here are some options for using them:

• Play them every day
• Run concurrent Quads
• Let The Profits Network select the best Quad Sequences for you

Quad Sequencing lowers risk by basing bets on mathematically derived probabilities from historical data alongside individual race conditions.

With the correct selection technique, Quad Sequencing works around 95% of the time, sometimes a little more and sometimes a little less.

11th January Quad Results

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